It was a less than one in a million chance, according to a math professor at Syracuse, that Obama and Clinton ended up tied in a Syracuse primary last week. But that's not what's important. Rather, this quote:
It is always problematic to assign probabilities after events unfold; better to decide in advance what outcome you’d find interesting, and calculate that event’s likelihood. Before last Tuesday, political junkies might have said they’d find any tie interesting, not necessarily one specifically in Syracuse. By that broader measure, a tie isn’t that surprising — since Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama were essentially tied nationally in votes, and the chance of a tie in Syracuse was one in 137.
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